Bays West development to create new Sydney suburb larger than regional towns
Sydney’s best-kept secret is out.
New, exclusive research has just unveiled the true scale of the NSW Government’s landmark Bays West precinct at Glebe Island, revealing a colossal 8500 new dwellings that will create an inner-city population larger than some of Australia’s most prominent regional towns.
New research from OurTop10, conducted by Primara Research, shows the landmark Bays West precinct will deliver more new homes than have been approved Sydney Harbour’s entire foreshore area over the last two years combined.
That’s a staggering figure, dwarfing the 6,517 apartments approved from Putney to Rose Bay, Vaucluse, and Watsons Bay.
At an average household size of 2.6 residents, the precinct could add 22,100 people to the harbour foreshore, more than doubling the combined population growth of just 9153 residents recorded across all 30 areas over the past five years.
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Artists impressions of the future Bays West suburb, which will see Glebe Island turned into expensive housing. Picture: NSW Government
The precinct could add 22,100 people to the harbour foreshore. Picture: NSW Government
To put this into perspective, the new suburb’s population will be larger than several well-known regional towns across Australia.
These include Yeppoon in Queensland, Whyalla, Port Augusta, and Murray Bridge in South Australia, Griffith and Grafton in New South Wales, and Wangaratta and Horsham in Victoria. It will also sit just shy of Adelaide City’s current population of 29,118.
The first homes are expected to be completed by 2032, in time for the opening of the Metro station.
Minimal development in prime harbour locations
The research highlights a stark contrast in development activity across Sydney Harbour.
In the eight harbour areas closer to the CBD than Glebe Island, a mere 495 dwellings have been approved over the past two years.
This represents just six per cent of the foreshore total and less than one per cent of all dwellings approved in Greater Sydney.
Glebe Island’s immediate neighbours have seen similarly minimal activity, with Millers Point recording one dwelling approval, Pyrmont zero, and Balmain just 23.
Conversely, 73 per cent of harbourside apartment approvals were concentrated in areas significantly further from the CBD, such as Greenwich-Riverview (25 per cent), Five Dock-Abbotsford (19 per cent), Wentworth Point-Sydney Olympic Park (15 per cent), Ermington-Rydalmere (13 per cent), and Rhodes (11 per cent).
Source: Supplied.
The 30 harbourside areas currently house 489,497 residents, with median property prices averaging $2.1 million.
Prices range from $723,000 in Ryde South to a staggering $5.5 million in Rose Bay-Vaucluse-Watsons Bay. Lilyfield-Rozelle, with an affordability rating of 13, ranks as the 12th most unaffordable of these areas, placing it firmly in the ‘impossibly unaffordable’ bracket.
Impact on Lilyfield-Rozelle Property Market
The 8500 new apartments at Bays West represent more than 21 years of typical sales volume for the Lilyfield-Rozelle area, which sees approximately 400 property sales annually.
This development could increase Lilyfield-Rozelle’s current population of 14,152 (2024) by a substantial 156 per cent.
The new city within a city will be bigger than some regional hotspots. Picture: NSW Government
Experts suggest that houses in the area could surge in value as they become an even rarer commodity.
The impact on apartment prices, however, will depend on the build quality of Glebe Island’s new units.
High-quality waterfront apartments could potentially reduce the perceived value of existing apartments, while lower-quality new builds might enhance the value of older, quality apartments.
Metro precedent and sustained demand
The opening of the Bays West Metro Station in 2032 provides a six-year lead-up, mirroring the impact of the Sydney Metro Northwest on Castle Hill.
Between its 2012 announcement and 2019 opening, Castle Hill Central’s median property price surged 104 per cent from $579,000 to $1.18 million, before apartment completion moderated it to $960,000 by 2024.
If Lilyfield-Rozelle, currently at a median of $2.13 million (2024), follows a similar 95 per cent growth trajectory, its median could reach $4.15 million by 2032.
“Castle Hill showed apartment construction changes an area’s price composition,” Simon Ma, property expert at OurTop10, said.
“Lilyfield-Rozelle is more established, so prices aren’t likely to balloon as dramatically. “However, it’s an exclusive area, and a premium metro connection may push prices significantly higher before the 8500 apartments moderate the median.”
A map of the precinct to be developed. Picture: NSW Government
Ma added, “Unlike Castle Hill, where apartment supply drove prices down 19 per cent, Glebe Island’s premium location closer to the CBD may create different dynamics. Sustained demand could keep prices elevated despite the apartment influx, particularly given strong likely investor interest in inner-city apartments with world-class transport connectivity.”
Political leaders are divided
NSW Premier Chris Minns defended the planned density around the Bays West metro station, telling reporters that buildings would “in some cases be over 40 storeys.”
He emphasised the necessity of placing housing close to the city.
“There’s been this almost pathological exception to high-rise apartments close to Sydney’s CBD,” Minns stated.
“What ends up happening if you permanently lower the height of apartments… you fill up more space with housing and there is less space for public parks, to have picnics, and public amenity.”
However, Deputy Liberal leader and transport spokeswoman Natalie Ward branded the suburb “another millionaires’ row.”
This is despite a minimum of 10 per cent affordable and essential worker homes promised, with the housing to sit directly above the new Bays West Metro Station currently under construction.
Her comments echo previous Liberal complaints about the expense of dwellings around the soon-to-be-completed Woollahra station, further complicating the Coalition’s efforts to reposition itself as a pro-housing YIMBY (Yes In My Backyard) party.
